2000年5月25日 edited, written & uploaded by Simon Xi ZHANG.

从 《华尔街日报》05/25/2000 <人民币比价攀升，显示汇率控制有放松迹象> 谈起

Yuan's Climb May Signal Relaxation of Controls

By Karby Leggett, Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
May 25, 2000

(c) Used with permission from The Wall Street Journal, WSJ.com. Copyright 2000 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All rights reserved.

SHANGHAI, China -- The yuan rose to its highest level against the dollar in five years, signaling China may be starting to ease control over the restricted currency as it prepares for entry to the World Trade Organization.

Central bank officials attributed the yuan's rise to the country's strong trade prospects -- China's trade surplus reached $7.3 billion in the first four months of the year -- and continued to rule out the chance of a devaluation.

They also said the stronger finish reflects the central bank's desire to ease its tight grip over the currency and allow capital inflows to set the value of the yuan, which remains only partially convertible.

The yuan rose to 8.2764 yuan per dollar from 8.2768 yuan, reaching its strongest point since 1994, when China unified its dual exchange-rate system and began limited foreign-exchange trading. Though the rise was marginal, it was unusual because it marked the second straight day the yuan traded outside an informal band of about 8.2770 and 8.2800 per dollar -- a level the currency has stayed within for more than two years.

"It can be interpreted as one of the first steps to the liberalization of China's foreign-exchange market," said a senior foreign-exchange regulator who didn't want to be named. "With our huge foreign-exchange reserves, China is now ready to let its currency become more market-oriented."

China's yuan is convertible under the current account only, or for trade and service-related transactions. It isn't traded on international markets, and individuals and banks in China aren't allowed to buy foreign exchange freely. The central bank also maintains strict control over foreign exchange earned by Chinese exporters, requiring most of them to repatriate nearly 85% of the hard currency they earn overseas.

The rules allowed China to keep its currency stable throughout the Asian financial crisis, when many currencies in the region came under speculative attack and fell sharply. Yet because of China's strong exports -- which rose 39% in the first four months of the year -- the rules have also forced the central bank to intervene frequently in the market, buying dollars to prevent the yuan from rising too far. That has pushed China's hard currency reserves to $158.62 billion, the second largest in the world behind Japan.

Now, as China nears membership in the WTO and as regional economies shake off the remnants of the Asian crisis, officials say they are seeking to gradually liberalize the currency regime by allowing the yuan to move in a slightly wider band in line with market demand.

The central bank has been mulling such an adjustment for months. Ironically, that has fueled rumors that it could be the precursor to a devaluation. But the foreign-exchange regulator said such fears are off the mark: "The wider trading band is part of efforts to bring our foreign-exchange regime more in line with global-currency markets, but it's just one aspect of many different efforts to liberalize the markets," the official said.

By easing its grip on the currency, the central bank may be setting the stage for a slight strengthening of the currency that wouldn't threaten China's exporters. China boasts a hefty trade surplus -- it came to $29.1 billion last year and will likely be even larger this year -- and it receives huge capital inflows every year from foreign investors. The result is that China's foreign-exchange center, where the yuan trades, is awash with dollars. And with daily trading valued at only about $200 million, that puts the currency under strong upward pressure.

"The appreciation demonstrates China's extraordinarily strong current-account and capital inflows that are related to funds raised (from new stock offerings) in the last month," said Dong Tao, an economist with Credit Suisse First Boston in Hong Kong. "This combination points to a much stronger exchange rate." He said the slightly wider band represents an effort by China to regain some flexibility with its exchange rate, which was "taken hostage" during the Asian crisis.

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Simon Xi ZHANG. COPYRIGHT (2000) claimed for Chinese part at below.

2月29日张贴《金融时报》文章，在分析中已经提到人民币汇率将向市场调节自由化的方向迈进。中国人民银行在2月份已经表示：“（现行的）美圆对人民币 1: 8.28 并非一个‘固定的官方汇率’”。今天的这则消息再次印证了这一立场。

中国的外汇储备金份额当中，占绝对多数的是美圆，以日圆、德国马克（与欧元保持固定汇率挂钩）、港币（与美圆保持固定汇率挂钩）为辅。如文中所述，1998 年亚洲金融危机期间，中国大量买入美圆以求缓解东南亚国家偿付高额美圆外债的压力。中国（大陆）现在积累有仅次于日本的世界第二大外汇储备金，当初确实是付出过代价。

昨天（5月24日）美国联邦众议院以出人意料的239票高票赞成(239 Yeah, 179 Nay)，通过了修改1974年对外贸易法、并授予中国永久正常贸易关系地位 (PNTR) 的议案。联邦参议院将于6月份进行表决，尽管参议院外交关系委员会主席赫尔姆斯参议员 (Senator Helms, Republican, North Carolina) 已经发表公开声明要“大辩特辩一场，决不做橡皮图章”(footnote 1)，但是普遍认为对华PNTR将会由柯林顿总统签署成为正式法律。

中国现在继续与墨西哥等六国进行加入 WTO 的谈判，预料中国将在2000年内正式成为WTO成员，一切双边谈判的市场准入条约届时就要根据WTO的规则而生效。无论美国是否给予PNTR待遇，中国都会加入WTO；而若美国通过对华PNTR案，中美两国在贸易领域的交往和纠纷解决便必须依照WTO的机制进行。

在中国加入WTO的谈判过程中，中国对西方工业化国家的让步多于回报。不过，随着加入WTO，由于许多高关税和非关税贸易壁垒必须废除，中国产品在世界贸易市场将获得更大的活动空间，进一步提高出口额当属意料之中。

中国在国际货币基金组织内已经承诺争取早日实现人民币在资本项目下的可自由兑换，届时人民币将成为全面自由兑换的货币。但是由于已经有了亚洲金融危机的教训，在汇率方面，人民币不大可能与某一种货币挂钩、建立稳定的联系汇率；中国大陆与香港的经济结构迥异，也不会仿效香港建立与美圆联系汇率的做法。

在全面可自由兑换的环境下，采取市场浮动汇率，同时要保证汇率风险给出口表现的冲击不大，一个强大的外汇储备是通过国际金融市场操作、调节人民币汇率的得力工具。除去在IMF的特别提款权之外，中国外汇储备金结构上实际可以分为三项：美圆、日圆、欧元。中国“积压”着大量“美圆库存”，有可能会造成美圆在国际市场汇率下降，由于浮动汇率，人民币比价相应上升，在出口贸易方面会造成与亚洲周边国家竞争力下降。如果大量抛售美圆，储备下降到一定程度以后，中国“操纵”人民币在国际金融市场市值的能力会下降，同时，所有中国出口货物也价格下降（尤其当美国大量回购美圆），可以在全球市场提升中国出口贸易与亚洲国家之间竞争能力，然而对于美国市场而言，存在一个隐患：

1999年11月的中美双边条约规定，自中国加入WTO之日起，美国在适用反倾销法律时，仍可以将中国作为“非市场经济国家”对待、以确定出口产品的本地市场（中国）价格，这一保留措施的期限为15年。这是美中双方在WTO机制内单独保留的特别规定。对于低价到港的中国产品，美国可以宣布适用其反倾销法律。并且由于届时将属于WTO成员之间的贸易交往，根据WTO规则，成员间可以进行磋商，或者提交WTO裁决，但是中国不能宣布任何报复措施。

人民币实现自由兑换之日，当然要迟于中国加入WTO，但是估计不会有15年之久。可自由兑换的人民币，实行浮动汇率，如何经营国库外汇储备，在保持汇率稳定、出口成绩和避免被反倾销措施制裁之间取得利益平衡，是老革命遇见的新问题。

人民币自由兑换与WTO机制还对中国现在的外国投资法律体制造成重大的变更。

从中国的对外投资法律角度，文中提到，中国法人的外汇收入必须将85%份额回流境内。违反这个规定的，称之为“套汇”，轻者受银行罚息，重者可以触犯《刑法》，依“扰乱社会主义市场经济秩序罪”一章科处刑罚。这个规定在人民币实现经常项目与资本项目的全面自由兑换流通之后当然要废除。

从中国的吸引外国投资法律角度，中国法律中有许多“本地含量(local content)”、“出口要求 (repatriation / export performance)”以及强制技术转让的规定；同时，尽管允许外国投资者将收益孳息转移出境，但是在具体操作中还有种种限制。这都属于“扭曲市场行为”(market distorting behaviors)，被中美协定、中国-欧盟协定明文废除、禁止。（包括中国的法院届时不再执行现已经依法强制“约定”的合同中相关条款）资本的自由流动会影响中国的国际收支能力，目前对外汇储备的管理方式届时只得更改以适应新形势。废除外商投资企业产品的出口份额要求以后，当人民币汇率居高不下之时，该部分产品只好在国内市场消化。目前中国吸引外商投资设立工厂、流水线，产值的增加促进了国民生产总值的增长，但是部分产品并没有、也不可能在国内市场流通，随着加入WTO废除“扭曲市场行为”，这部分产品可以成为潜在的市场冲击波、与国内生产者竞争；而出售产品的收益，正好又是趁着人民币汇率居高不下的时机换回美圆汇出境外。中国的市场承受能力和国库外汇储备在“适宜”的机会将经受双重的严峻考验。

美国投资方面对中国市场的压力确实是不容低估的。

尽管在中美WTO的谈判协定中，美国国民可以在中国设立自己的产品销售网络，中国对本国国民外贸经营权的限制也被废除。但是与表面预料所相反的是，美国方面现在更倾向于投资，而非出口。在中国开始改革开放的时候，外国投资者的投资活动、经营活动受到各种限制。比如：被迫采取合资企业 (JV) 的形式而非独资，在企业中最多只有49%的控制权，地方政府强迫“拉郎配”把效益经营不佳的企业扔给“洋华佗”期望起死回生，等等。在这种种干扰自由市场的措施下，外商或者不再追加投资，或者转向出口贸易。但是在新的WTO机制下，外国投资者以前遭受的种种限制都要被废除，外国投资者有了更大的经营权，有了不受限制从外国本土采购原材料的权利，有雄厚的资金支持竞揽中国的高级经营管理科研人员，进行投资(FDI)是比经营出口贸易更好的选择。据今天的报道，摩根斯坦利 (Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co.) 的经济师Joseph Quinlan 估算，对华投资即将超越对华出口、成为美国同中国经贸往来的最主要的方式，所以“PNTR 不是一揽子贸易的买卖，而是全盘投资的打算”(footnote 2)。

实际上，近年以来，随着中国经济改革的发展和政府放松对经济行为的直接干涉，外国投资者已经在“悄悄”进行一场 M&A Revolution，把原来的合资企业经过清算、分帐、回购，实现了兼并与购入(Merger & Acquisition)，化为借助“隔山传力”拥有更大经营决定权的“新合资企业”。这正说明，在中国经济逐步放开的过程中，外国资本对直接投资产生越来越大的兴趣。中国加入了WTO，一道铁门彻底打开，抢滩登陆战即将开始了。

　

　

(Fn 1) PRESS RELEASE: Helms Vows Senate Fight on China PMFN, U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, May 24, 2000. For official text, click HERE (回本页原文请点击浏览器“后退”按钮）
(Fn 2) Helene Cooper & Ian Johnson: House Vote Primes U.S. Firms to Boast Investment in China, Wall Street Journal, May 25, 2000. (回本页原文请点击浏览器“后退”按钮）

　

(c) Simon Xi ZHANG, 2000.

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